Value of paleoclimate modeling

img clim-of-pastA recent Climate of the Past paper by Gavin Schmidt et al. uses the CMIP5 & PMIP3 model outputs from both past and future simulations to explore the connections between model skill and model predictions, and has the potential to greatly improve assessments of future climate change. 

In Using palaeo-climate comparisons to constrain future projections in CMIP5, Schmidt et al. provide a range of examples illustrating the general requirements necessary in attempts to use palaeo-climate simulations to quantitatively constrain future projections. 

The successes and problems discussed in these examples lead naturally to a set of guidelines that could guide future research for both modellers and the palaeo-data community.  

This paper arose out of a PAGES-CLIVAR Intersection Panel workshop in Honolulu in March 2012.

The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (Phase 5) (CMIP5) is an ongoing coordinated project instigated by the Working Group on Coupled Modelling (WGCM) at the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) and consisting of contributions from over 25 climate modelling groups (and over 30 climate models) from around the world. Paleo-climate simulations from the Paleoclimate Model Intercomparison Project (Phase 3) (PMIP3) initiative are also used.


Using palaeo-climate comparisons to constrain future projections in CMIP5
Schmidt GA, Annan JD, Bartlein PJ, Cook BI, Guilyardi E, Hargreaves JC, Harrison SP, Kageyama M, LeGrande AN, Konecky B, Lovejoy S, Mann ME, Masson-Delmotte V, Risi C, Thompson D, Timmermann A, Tremblay LB, and Yiou P.
Climate of the Past, (2014) vol. 10, 221-250.