2nd PAGES 2k Network Meeting: Review of status and plans for synthesis

The 2nd PAGES 2k Network Meeting took place in Bern one day after the XVIII INQUA Congress and was attended by 31 participants. The PAGES 2k coordinator Heinz Wanner gave an introduction on the scientific objectives, the concept, and the schedule of the PAGES 2k project. This was followed by presentations from all regional groups and from associated guests. The meeting wrapped up with strategic and scientific discussions.

All 2k regional groups (Fig. 1) agreed that the 2k Network should work towards a consortium paper for the IPCC AR5 manuscript submission deadline. It was agreed that drafts of the regional time series and accompanying explanatory text sections should be completed by January 2012 to provide enough time for the writing team to produce a meaningful synthesis. The two main aspects discussed in this regard were whether the firm timeline is realistic to produce reliable temperature reconstructions, and the difficulties of producing a temperature record for some regions, such as Africa, where natural archives appear to be sensitive mainly to precipitation. The plenary decided to attempt producing a first set of reconstructions to retain the current momentum of the 2k initiative and to focus on paleotemperatures because they were considered most useful for IPCC AR5. A stronger emphasis on precipitation and climate modes will be set for the final 2k synthesis.

Representatives of the eight regional 2k groups summarized recent activities, the results achieved since the first meeting in Corvallis in July 2009, and their possible contributions to the planned PAGES 2k consortium paper. Despite the difficulties encountered by several groups in identifying and processing a significant number of high-resolution proxies, the participants were impressed by the progress made within each group. Not surprisingly, the discussion was centered on how to include and compile the best proxy records in the available time, and how to organize the rapidly growing global data set.

Eugene Wahl from NOAA in Boulder, USA offered support to the 2k climate reconstruction process by way of hosting the 2k datasets. The NOAA Paleoclimatology branch will adapt a section of its Paleoclimate data bank to cater to the needs of the 2k groups. The plenary decided that each regional group would appoint a data manager in charge of the regional groups’ contributions to the 2k data collections and archiving.

Eugene Wahl also shed light on the revised concept and first available datasets of the PAGES-CLIVAR Paleoclimate Reconstruction (PR) Challenge. He (along with fellow PR Challenge co-leader Nicholas Graham) also invited all colleagues interested in paleoclimate reconstructions to participate in the PR Challenge. Incidentally, a report on the PR Challenge was published in the last issue of PAGES news (Graham and Wahl 2011).

Hugues Goosse (Louvain, Belgium) shared information on the existing/planned simulations being carried out by the PMIP3 community and by groups working with EMICs. He and Bette Otto-Bliesner (NCAR, Boulder) also expressed their interest in collaborating with the 2k-reconstruction community. The modeling community will be an integral part of the final 2k synthesis.

Realizing that the ocean regions are still insufficiently covered by the existing regional groups, the plenary suggested initiating a working group on high-resolution paleoceanographic reconstructions of the last 2k. A lead team has since formed around Mike Evans (Univ. Maryland, USA) and started the process (page 4). Finally, the plenary discussed the schedule and the goals for the final 2k-reconstruction synthesis. Collaboration with modeling activities will be intensified and a strong effort will be made to generate regional precipitation reconstructions and to analyze past circulation patterns and climate modes.

references

Graham N and Wahl E (2011) PAGES news 19(2): 71-72