GMST reconstructions


GMST reconstructions timeline

 2016  2017  2018



records 2k image
Our input database: Temperature proxy collection of PAGES2k Consortium (2017).

In 2017, the PAGES2k consortium published a comprehensive collection of temperature sensitive proxy records covering the Common Era.

This collaborative group effort uses that PAGES 2k temperature database to produce reconstructions of global mean surface temperature (GMST) over the past 2000 years.

Currently available GMST reconstructions are difficult to compare because they are based on different reconstruction parameters and input data. We apply a range of state-of-the-art reconstruction techniques of different complexity to reconstruct climate over the last 2000 years.

By running coordinated reconstruction experiments, we aim to maximize comparability across the results. The index reconstructions are used to identify and quantify features of global mean temperature change over the last 2000 years that stand up to a wide range of reconstruction choices and approaches. Temperature variability and trends at different time-scales are quantified and compared to climate model simulation and reconstructions of global external forcing.

Our output will be a set of GMST data covering the Common Era including uncertainty estimates based on ensembles, thus directly serving for future data model comparison efforts.

The project started in early 2016 with an open call to all members of the PAGES2k consortium. It is now in an advanced state and is foreseen to be concluded in mid to late 2018.

> GMST reconstructions scientific goals

> GMST reconstructions people


Learn more and participate

This group is open to anyone who is interested. To participate contact the project coordinator Raphael Neukom (see GMST reconstructions people).

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