PAGES2k Network Global Mean Surface Temperature Reconstructions (2019)

Citation details Raphael Neukom, Nathan Steiger, Juan José Gómez-Navarro, Jianghao Wang and Johannes P. Werner. 2019. No evidence for globally coherent warm and cold periods over the pre-industrial Common Era. Nature, 571, 550-554. doi: 10.1038/s41586-019-1401-2

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Summary of Reconstruction database:

This study presented 7 global mean temperature reconstructions for the Common Era, employing a different statistical methods in each. All reconstructions used the PAGES2k global temperature database V2.0.0 for data input, and the HadCRUT4 based Cowtan and Way (2014) global mean temperature dataset for calibration and targeting. A subset of 257 screened dataset were used, and compared to using all 692 datasets from the databases. The following reconstruction methods were used: composite plus scale (CPS), principal component regression (PCR), regularized errors in variables approach (from Mann et al., 2008) (M08), Pairwise comparison (PAI), Optimal information extraction (OIE), Bayesian hierarchical model (BHM), and data assimilation (DA)

A data-model comparison is also completed, using past millennium runs of CMIP5 model to create an ensemble of 23 simulations. Further detail is described in the accompanying publication (Neukom et al., 2019).

How to access reconstruction data:

The reconstruction outcomes, and screened input data subset can be found on both Figshare, and on NOAA WDS PALEO, and are available as textfiles. These can be accessed via the buttons below, or at the top of the page.

Both sites contain metadata and citation information, as well as data folders containing:

• Text files of the reconstructions for each individual methodology.
• A readme. file describing the dataset
• A zip folder containing all reconstructions
• A textfile containing the median and 95% range for the full ensemble.

In addition, the Figshare site contains a zip file of the input_data for the reconstructions and required data sets and code to generate figures from the publication.

The original PAGES2k v2.0.0 dataset is archived on WDS PALEO, and a description and access instructions can be found on this portal under the global temperature compilation umbrella in the sidebar. CMIP5 model runs are available at https://pcmdi.llnl.gov/

> Access data (WDS Paleo)
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References:

• Cowtan, K., & Way, R. G. (2014). Coverage bias in the HadCRUT4 temperature series and its impact on recent temperature trends. UPDATE Hybrid temperature reconstruction by domain.
• Raphael Neukom, Nathan Steiger, Juan José Gómez-Navarro, Jianghao Wang and Johannes P. Werner. 2019. No evidence for globally coherent warm and cold periods over the pre-industrial Common Era. Nature, 571, 550-554. doi: 10.1038/s41586-019-1401-2