whoi.edu
This PAGES 2k reconstruction methods workshop seeks to bring together experts to develop additional methodologies for climate field reconstructions that address some of the extant challenges identified during the first phase of the 2k Network activities.
These questions include:
1. What are the best unbiased ways to select proxy data from a large database of potential predictors?
2. How can low frequency and time-uncertain proxies be incorporated in reconstructions in a way that allows for their additional uncertainties?
3. What additional challenges are presented if precipitation, and not temperature or indices of drought, are the reconstruction target?
4. Can the regional networks of proxy data be reasonably used to develop a new global paleotemperature synthesis?
Our objective is to address these 4 questions, develop new algorithms and tools where appropriate, and set the stage for further 2k Network activities including precipitation reconstruction, improved estimates of uncertainty, particularly those arising from the use of low resolution and time uncertain proxies, and develop a global synthesis product. We anticipate these activities will benefit the regional groups by providing tools and 'best practices' guidance for the next phase of 2k Network activity.
Meeting participants included:
Kevin Anchukaitis, Nicholas McKay, Darrell Kaufman, Jessica Tierney, Edward Cook, Julien Emile-Geay, Ben Henley, Raphael Neukom, Jason Roberts, Kristina Seftigen, Jason Smerdon, Nathan Steiger, Martin Tingley, John Tipton, Tas van Ommen, Lucien von Gunten, Gene Wahl, Jianghao Wang, Johannes Werner, and Rob Wilson
Post-meeting material:
Werner, J. P. and Tingley, M. P.: Technical Note: Probabilistically constraining proxy age–depth models within a Bayesian hierarchical reconstruction model, Clim. Past, 11, 533-545, doi:10.5194/cp-11-533-2015, 2015. (link)
Wang J, Emile-Geay J, Guillot D, McKay NP & Rajaratnam B (2015) Fragility of reconstructed temperature patterns over the Common Era: Implications for model evaluation, Geophysical Research Letters, 42: 7162–7170, doi:10.1002/2015GL065265. (link)