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The current state of knowledge regarding the hydrological consequences of ongoing climatic change can only be estimated based on assumptions of future changes. Magnitudes and frequencies of hydrological extreme events will change from recent values. Consequently, forecasts on future development based on recent observations and measurements and their statistical analysis are hindered due to non-steady conditions.
Given this, a view back in time offers a significant range of observations of hydrological extreme events based on climatic changes in different directions. From a European perspective, the Medieval Climate Optimum and the Little Ice Age illustrate ranges of climatic changes in historic times. From those days, reports, documents and traces of hydrological extreme events like floods and droughts are handed down to nowadays. These reports and traces have an untapped potential for further analysis of magnitudes, frequencies and process mechanisms for an improved understanding of the relationships of climate change and hydrological consequences. Due to the different duration of written historic times in different cultures around the world - one or two centuries in North America and several millennia considering the ancient cultures e.g. in Egypt or China - the time range of previous extreme hydrological events which can be further considered leads back into pre-historic times (i.e. the Pleistocene).
Possible topics
Past hydrological events and periods related to global change
Development of refined global and regional chronologies on hydrological events and periods
Historical perspectives of current hazards
Relevance of Pleistocene hydrological events for the presence and future
Drought analysis - an underestimated problem and future challenge
Implications of long term research in relation to forecasts and prognoses for the future
Extreme wave events in the past and future
Interpreting human impact
Extraterrestrial flow and floods
Estimations of previous damage and losses
New techniques and methods of investigation (dating techniques, historical source analysis, hydraulic interpretation of geomorphological and sedimentological structures, ....)
Keynotes
Victor Baker: "Extraterrestrial flow - why should we care?"
Rudolf Brazdil: "500 years floods and droughts in Central Europe based on documentary evidence and instrumental records"
Paul Carling: "Sedimentology of megafloods"
Ruediger Glaser: "Historic climate changes and hydrological extremes" (to be confirmed)
Ken Gregory: "The development of palaeohydrological research - the first sixty years"
Dieter Kelletat: "Extreme wave events in the past"
Participants and language
The conference is open to all scientists with an affinity for research into historicial and prehistorical hydrological events. The official language of the conference is English.
Important dates
January 31st, 2014 abstracts due
Feburary 15th, 2014 author notification
February 28th, 2014 close of early registration