AIMES, the Earth Commission Working Group 1 Earth and Human Systems Intercomparison Modelling Project (EHSMIP) under the Global Commons Alliance, and the Safe Landing Climates Lighthouse Activity of World Climate Research Program (WCRP) are organizing a discussion series that aims to advance the knowledge about tipping elements, irreversibility, and abrupt changes in the Earth system.
The discussion series is intended to support efforts to increase consistency in treatment of tipping elements in the scientific community, develop a research agenda, and design joint experiments and ideas for a Tipping Element Model Intercomparison Project (TipMip). The primary objective is to create an international science platform for the study of climatic, ecological and social tipping elements and their interactions in the Earth system.
Discussion Series: Tipping elements, irreversibility, and abrupt change in the Earth system | Permafrost
17 January 2021: 16:00 – 17:30 CET
Objectives and goals
- Facilitate and coordinate synthesis and review activities and publications on the risks imposed by climate and ecological tipping elements and their potentially cascading interactions, early warning signals and intervention/management options, as well as on the opportunities offered by societal tipping elements and their interactions for sustainability transformation.
- Identify corresponding research needs.
- Convene workshops and other activities around these topics.
- Serve as a science-based clearing house for these topics for research and policy communities.
This discussion series aims to advance the knowledge about tipping elements, irreversibility, and abrupt changes in the Earth system. It supports efforts to increase consistency in treatment of tipping elements in the scientific community, develop a research agenda, and design joint experiments and ideas for a Tipping Element Model Intercomparison Project (TipMip).
This discussion series is a joint activity of the Analysis, Integration, and Modeling of the Earth System (AIMES) global research project of Future Earth, the Earth Commission Working Group 1 Earth and Human Systems Intercomparison Modelling Project (EHSMIP) under the Global Commons Alliance and the Safe Landing Climates Light House Activity of World Climate Research Program (WCRP).
The events (60-90min each) will be held monthly and are open to the public.
This event in the series focuses on permafrost.
- Introduction and objectives of the webinar – Victor Brovkin and Claire Treat (5min)
- Permafrost and climate change – what are we observing ? – Hanne Hvidtfeld Christiansen (20min)
- Model insight on permafrost change (tbc) -Gustaf Hugelius (20min)
- Questions and moderated discussion (20min)
- The final 25min have been reserved for informal discussions on the research agenda and the development of a Tipping Element Model Intercomparison Project (TipMip).
Professor Hanne Hvidtfeld Christiansen
Hanne H. Christiansen is a professor in Physical Geography at the University Centre in Svalbard (UNIS). Her research is within periglacial geomorphology, focusing on active layer – permafrost dynamics including the ground thermal regime, cryostratigraphy, and climatic and meteorological control on periglacial landforms, processes and sediments. She has field experience from Greenland, Svalbard and former cold climatic landscapes of Scandinavia from the last 25 years. Hanne has been involved in the establishment of the Arctic Safety Centre at UNIS and works with the consequences of climate change on permafrost in Arctic communities focusing on geohazards. Presently she is leading the UNIS interdisciplinary geoscientific strategic project ‘Developing a permafrost and meteorological climate change response system to build resilience in Arctic communities’. She has been the Vice Dean for Education (2018-2020), Head of the Arctic Geology Department (2013-2021) both at UNIS, and President of the International Permafrost Association, IPA (2016-2020).
Dr Hugelius is Senior Lecturer, Department of Physical Geography at Stockholm University. He is Vice Director of the Bolin Centre of Climate Research and so-leads the research unit Landscape, Environment and Geomatics.
Registration is free and must be done online. > Register
Analysis, Integration, and Modeling of the Earth System AIMES
The Analysis, Integration, and Modeling of the Earth System (AIMES) project is an international network of Earth system scientists and scholars that seek to develop innovative, interdisciplinary ways to understand the complexity of the natural world and its interactions with human activities.
Through international science coordination and partnerships, AIMES addresses questions beyond the remit of a single institution or discipline to understand the complex interactions between biogeochemistry, Earth system dynamics, and socio-economic conditions under global environmental change. This strategy requires a new level of coordination between disciplinary or process-focused modeling and observations in order to make progress in understanding, predicting, and managing the Earth as an integrated system. AIMES is a global research project of Future Earth.
The Earth Commission is a global team of scientists with the mission to define a safe and just corridor for people and planet. Working Group 1 Earth and Human Systems Intercomparison Modelling Project (EHSMIP) of the Earth Commission will identify, assess and model key interactions that regulate the state of the planetary (i.e., the physical climate system, the cryosphere, oceans, terrestrial biosphere systems, cycles of water, nutrients and carbon), and human systems. This will inform setting targets for a stable and safe planet, and will help us in developing and understanding pathways that are compatible with these targets.
The scientific guardrails defined by the Earth Commission will guide the Science Based Targets Network in developing tangible science-based targets tailored to cities and companies. The Earth Commission is hosted by Future Earth, the world’s largest network of sustainability scientists, and is the scientific cornerstone of the Global Commons Alliance.
World Climate Research Program WCRP Safe Landing Climates
The World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) Safe Landing Climates Lighthouse Activity is an exploration of the routes to “safe landing” spaces for human and natural systems. It will explore future pathways that avoid dangerous climate change while at the same time contributing to the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), including those of climate action, zero hunger, clean water and sanitation, good health and well-being, affordable and clean energy, and healthy ecosystems above and below water. The relevant time scale is multi-decadal to millennial. This event is part of a WCRP Lighthouse Activity.