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VICS webinar series: "Worst case thinking: Past eruptions and volcanic risk analysis" - Woo & Donovan

Online meeting
Contact person
Céline Vidal
E-Mail address
Working groups
Meeting Category

The PAGES VICS working group will conduct a webinar series in the lead up to its 5th Workshop, planned for 2022 in Aarhus, Denmark.

The theme for the webinar series is: "Worst-case thinking: Past eruptions and volcanic risk analysis"


Friday 26 February 15:00 UTC

> Watch the Woo and Donovan recording on YouTube

First speaker: Gordon Woo, University College London: "Reimagining Volcanic History: Lessons from counterfactual analysis"

As with other extreme natural hazards, the record of volcanic eruptions is sparse. More can be gleaned from this record by adopting the physicist’s perspective that history is just one realisation of what might have happened. By reimagining history, especially periods of volcanic unrest, fresh insight can be gained into volcano risk. Counterfactual volcano risk analysis is illustrated by the example of Montserrat. The fundamental concept of counterfactual analysis is universal and applies to all perils, both natural and man-made, including pandemics.

Second speaker: Amy Donovan, University of Cambridge: "Imagining volcanoes: towards a holistic understanding of risk"

This presentation will discuss some of the challenges that scientists face in communicating risk and working with governments. It will focus on the many ways that groups of people can “view” the volcano and its potential activity – from scientists to local populations – and discuss the particular difficulties that arise when multiple governments are involved across borders. Ultimately, I will argue that this requires volcanologists to understand their own positionality and work across disciplinary boundaries.

> Watch the Woo and Donovan recording on YouTube

How to join

Join the ZOOM room:

Further information

> Watch the Woo and Donovan recording on YouTube

Contact the webinar co-chairs Felix Riede: and Céline Vidal: