Planetary Boundaries Working Group
Launch |
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Synthesis |
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Nov 2022 |
2023 |
2024 |
Nov 2025 |
Legend: Stability landscape showing the pathway of the Earth System out of the Holocene to its present position in the hotter Anthropocene. The two divergent pathways of the Earth System in the future (broken arrows) are the current Hothouse Earth pathway driven by human emissions of greenhouse gases and biosphere degradation toward a planetary threshold at ∼2 °C. The other pathway leads to Stabilized Earth, a pathway of Earth System stewardship guided by human-created feedbacks to a quasi-stable, human-maintained basin of attraction. Diagram from: Steffen et al. 2018. (Creative Commons License)
Planetary Boundaries and Safe Operating Spaces
As the world continues on its unsustainable trajectory towards “hothouse earth”, it is essential to define a safe operating space for key biological and environmental processes, in order to assist in charting pathways that could stabilise earth system processes, by returning them to “Holocene-like” conditions (Steffen et al. 2018). Without longer-term data, however, we are tasked with trying to return a system to unknown conditions. The purpose of this working group is to explore the interface between palaeoecology and the planetary boundaries literature, thereby contributing to definition of safe operating spaces.
Using palaeoecological techniques and other long-term data, we aim to chart change in key parameters including land-system change, biosphere integrity, freshwater, and biochemical flows over timescales of decades to millennia. We aim to interpret these changes using a complex systems approach that considers environmental, biotic and social factors. By describing and modelling change over long-time periods we aim to contribute to mapping sustainable trajectories that stabilise essential earth system processes and associated ecosystem services. As part of this process, we will look for evidence of tipping points and explore the drivers that cause transitions between stable states. This work will explore the synergy between landscape analysis at a range of scales and the planetary boundaries literature, and will aim to help define and chart the pathways towards safe operating spaces.
Our aim in this project is to develop the potential synergy between palaeoecology and the planetary boundaries literature by establishing ranges of variability and trajectories of change over timescales of decades to millennia. Through this work, we aim to identify regime shifts and relate our findings to defining safe operating spaces specifically relating to the key variables of biodiversity loss, landcover change, biogeochemical flows and freshwater use. Indirectly, we will also look at climate change but focusing on the carbon storage capacity of past and present ecosystems in the context of a more holistic consideration of ecosystem services. Related to these key variables our group also will explore the interrelated agrobiodiversity, water management and the interlinkages between restoration and sustainable use of ecosystem services, relating to the broader framework of the Sustainable Development Goals.
The definition of target ranges of variability (i.e. safe operating space), and possible pathways of future management will be defined based on historical ranges of variability and likely future scenarios of climate and land-cover change. The group will work alongside stakeholders to formulate a range of scenarios which will allow stakeholder collaboration through participatory workshops on expectations, visions and ideas for future scenarios on local, national and international level.
A second stage of the working group could develop methodologies for monitoring progress towards these targets, including exploring synergies with remote sensing data. Monitoring techniques including satellite remote sensing can assist in tracking degradation over recent decades and informing restoration that considers changes that have occurred since 1980s. Such information can be especially valuable in tracking rates of recent changes, including changes in population size and distribution and in monitoring the impact of and recovery from extreme events (e.g. droughts, fires, floods). Knowledge of these trajectories can assist in making predictions of how such events may impact social-ecological systems in the future. (e.g. recurrent events such as El Nino, La Nina, increasing occurrence of intense wildfires.)
This scaled approach can realise the synergy between long-term data, landscape management the planetary boundaries community. It will assist in planning for new ideas on transition pathways integrated with the sustainable development goals.
Coordinators
Leaders
Anneli Ekblom (iHOPE and University of Uppsala, Sweden)
Lindsey Gillson (Plant Conservation Unit, University of Cape Town, South Africa)
Kelly Kirsten (University of Cape Town, South Africa)
Committee
Oonsie Biggs (University of Stellenbosch, South Africa)
John Dearing (University of Southampton, UK)
Peter Gell (Federation University, Australia)
Jed Kaplan (University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong)
Sjoerd Kluiving (Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, The Netherlands)
Rob Marchant (University of York, UK)
Fetra Randriatsara (ECR, University of Cape Town, South Africa)
Tsilavo Razafimanantsoa (ECR, ECN representative, University of Cape Town, South Africa)
Estelle Razanatsoa (ECR, data liaison, University of Cape Town, South Africa)
Alistair Seddon (University of Bergen, Norway)
Chris Trisos (ACDI, University of Cape Town, South Africa)
Zander Venter (Norwegian Institute for Nature Research in Oslo, Norway)
Ke Zhang (State Key Laboratory of Lake Science and Environment, Nanjing Institute of Geography and Limnology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, China)
References
Steffen, W., Rockström, J., Richardson, K., Lenton, T.M., Folke, C., Liverman, D., Summerhayes, C.P., Barnosky, A.D., Cornell, S.E., Crucifix, M. and Donges, J.F., 2018. Trajectories of the Earth System in the Anthropocene. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 115(33), pp.8252-8259.