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CVAS workshop: Role of scaling in the future of prediction & emerging themes

Potsdam, Germany
Contact person
Liv Heinecke
E-Mail address
Working groups
Meeting Category


Date: 06 March 1:30 pm - 08 March 12:30 pm
Location: Potsdam, Germany. The meeting will be hybrid format with a core group present locally and remote participants.
* Note: This workshop will be taking place before the combined PAGES2k-CVAS Topical Science Meeting

Please register for the workshop here. The workshop will be hybrid, please make sure to choose the right registration track - either on-site participation or online participation.

Deadline for financial support is the 06 February, after which we will inform you asap if and with how much funding we will be able to support you.

Deadline for on-site registration is the 15 February.


The goal of CVAS is to examine climate variability in space and time.

CVAS’ work sits at the nexus of paleoclimate and other observational data, climate modelling and state-of-the-art statistical methods. By integrating these different approaches, the group aims to improve our understanding and modelling of the climate system, in particular by synthesizing and conveying knowledge gained from paleoclimate archives into usables for model development, which also involves exploring alternative modeling approaches and revising current ones. In turn, this allows for improved accuracy of climate projections from regional to global scales. 

Therefore, our objectives for this second CVAS workshop of Phase II are as follows:

  • Objective 1 is to bring together experts using different strategies for climate related predictions/projections and discuss the role of scaling statistical models for predictions/projections and decision making. We will put into perspectives the role of stochastic versus deterministic models, and how to best utilize together simple climate models, global climate models and energy balance models, including regional and stochastic updates of Budyko-Sellers type models, to improve confidence in climate predictions/projections, and perform probabilistic predictions of extreme events and changes in their distribution.
  • Objective 2 is to discuss the progress of the variability mapping working group. This working group has collected a list of databases to produce global maps of variability on different time-scales and has done first feasibility experiments. In the workshop, the group will present and discuss their first results and plans. One important component will be a session on the expected results and the associated hypotheses concerning the spatial structure, scaling and proxy dependency.

    Bringing experts together from different perspectives (theory, models and proxy) will allow to cover the full range of expectations and this will lead to a document accompanying the mapping project. The outcomes of this discussion will also directly feed in the TSM on centennial climate variability at regional scale in models and reconstructions.

  • Objective 3 is to discuss the possibility of scanning a larger parameter space in climate models and using additional climate model tuning targets next to present-day observations. This would allow us to investigate a broader range of possible model sensitivities and model behaviors in terms of climate variability at various scales. First results will be shown, and strategies and alternative tuning targets will be discussed, including spectral targets derived from the mapping project in Objective 2.

Expression of interest

If you would like to participate in the TSM along with the individual Working Group meetings, please indicate your interest using this form by 10 December

In January we will ask all accepted contributions to formally register for the workshop.


Shaun Lovejoy, Mc Gill University (Canada)
Reik Donner, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (Germany)
Gerband Koren*, Universitair Utrecht (The Netherlands)
Fabrice Lambert, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile (Chile)
Cecile Blanchet, Geoforschungszentrum Potsdam (Germany)
Susana Barbosa, Institute for Systems and Computer Engineering, Technology and Science (Portugal)
Andrew Dolman, Alfred-Wegener-Institute (Germany)
Pepijn Bakker, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam (The Netherlands)
Xu Zhang, Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research (China)
Clara Deser, National Center for Atmospheric Research (USA)
Mathieu Casado, ISPL (France)
Rahul Pawar*, Indian Institute of Technology Roorkee (India)
Vincent Lam, Universität Bern (Switzerland)
Raphaël Hébert*, Alfred-Wegener-Institute (Germany)
Anne de Vernal, Université du Québec à Montréal & GEOTOP (Quebec)