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2K-CVAS TSM: Centennial climate variability at regional scale in models and reconstructions

Location
Potsdam, Germany
Dates
-
Contact person
Liv Heinecke
E-Mail address
liv.heinecke@awi.de
Working groups

2k Network-CVAS Topical Science Meeting

This Topical Science Meeting on "Centennial climate variability at regional scale in models and reconstructions" is being organized and led by the CVAS (Climate Variability Across Scales) and 2k Network Phase 4 PAGES working groups. 

The TSM includes the two working group workshops taking place before the cross-working group session:

  • The 2k Network workshop "Hydroclimate synthesis of the Common Era" will be held from 6-7 March 2023; and 
  • The CVAS workshop "Role of scaling in the future of prediction & emerging themes" will be held from 6-8 March 2023.

Logistics

Date: 8-10 March 2023
Venue: Science Park Telegrafenberg, Potsdam, Germany / hybrid format 

What is a Topical Science Meeting (TSM)?

PAGES Topical Science Meetings combine the strengths of its two most successful formats: the convening power, integrative character and high visibility of the PAGES Open Science Meetings and the scientific focus, world-class expertise and productivity of the interactive workshops of PAGES’ question-driven Working Groups. The new Topical Science Meeting format is designed to address societally and scientifically important matters in a way that is both focussed and comprehensive and has the flexibility to integrate ideas and inputs of the local conveners. > Read more 

TSMs are built around a core of parallel and joint science workshops of PAGES Working Groups that are particularly relevant to the subject of a respective Topical Science Meeting.

To add further value, impact and visibility, the workshops can be complemented with outreach, public, networking, engagement, and educational components. A Topical Science Meeting will typically involve approximately 100 participants, global and local, and stretch over three or more days. > Read more 

Description of 2k Network-CVAS TSM 

Centennial climate variability occurs at a key timescale, similar to the one of Anthropogenic climate change. However, centennial variability is generally less well constrained than variability at higher or lower frequencies. Interannual-to-decadal variability can benefit from direct observations that cover a sufficiently long period in many regions, and also from a dense network of high-resolution proxy records. Millennial to multi-millennial timescales can be reconstructed from a large set of marine or lake sedimentary records.
 
Both temperature and hydroclimate have been connected to destructive effects on past societies and/or resilience of populations in the face of climatic pressures and anomalies at regional scales. Understanding (the mechanisms of) centennial climate variability is of crucial societal importance, especially since it has a more direct impact on policy.

Recent work in climate modelling and climate reconstructions has made clear progress in the understanding of centennial-scale climate variability (during the Holocene) as also evidenced by the improved agreement between model results and global reconstructions at decadal and longer timescales over the Holocene, for instance. This can be attributed, at least in part, to the development of new reconstructions by PAGES working groups. 

However, current climate models still strongly underestimate the magnitude of regional variability at centennial time scales compared to proxies. 

PAGES 2k and CVAS provide complementary views on centennial variability. CVAS provides a broad view of variability at all timescales, while the 2k network concentrates on the past two millennia. This period is well suited to study centennial variability, with ample proxy networks and a good understanding of how external forcings have driven the global climate. 

However, the majority of existing studies have concentrated on annually-resolved records, which are often too short or not suited to studying centennial variations. We would like to leverage information from lower resolution and longer time series. 

PAGES 2k and CVAS have collaborated in the past, but having a specific joint workshop is a great opportunity to strengthen the links, learn from each other, exchange methodologies and offer new ways to understand the processes at the origin of centennial variability and the reasons for the model-data disagreements. 

2k Network and CVAS workshop

CVAS workshop > Calendar 

2k Network workshop > Calendar 

Expression of interest

If you would like to participate in the TSM along with the individual Working Group meetings, please indicate your interest using this form by 10 Decemberhttps://docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1FAIpQLSfTZ1rqXlqI8Yo7K6GHvib_zuIattHfLzu0Y2mZykN-F8NQ6A/viewform

More information

For more information on the 2k Network - CVAS TSM, please contact Thomas Laepple: Thomas.Laepple@awi.de