The effect of uncertainties in natural forcing records on simulated temperature during the last millennium
Tuesday, 16 May, 2023
Authors: Lücke LJ, Schurer AP, Toohey M, Marshall LR and Hegerl GC
Lücke at. have published a paper in Climate of the Past on "The effect of uncertainties in natural forcing records on simulated temperature during the last millennium".
The authors explore the role of climate forcings, including orbital, solar and volcanic forcings. They discuss the number of uncertainties and challenges that still remain in using climate forcings records, especially in volcanic and solar records.
Lücke et al. specifically "investigate how uncertainties in the solar and volcanic forcing records of the past millennium affect the large-scale temperature response using a two-box impulse response model." and find that:
- "Low solar forcing is most consistent with all the proxy reconstructions, even when accounting for volcanic uncertainty; and
- The residuals are in line with CMIP6 control variability at centennial timescales."